Hub Podcasts What rising oil prices mean for your bank account
Mar 19, 2026
Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economics professor known for public policy and macro analysis, breaks down a recent oil price surge. He explains supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and why Canadian households still feel the pinch. Tombe outlines modelling of direct and supply-chain effects, estimates added annual fuel costs, and maps who gains and who loses from higher oil prices.
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How A 50% Oil Spike Raises Household Costs
- A sustained 50% rise in crude oil lifts overall inflation by just over one percentage point.
- Trevor Tombe models direct pump effects plus supply-chain transmission, estimating about $1,000 extra per household annually from the shock.
Canada Is Less Energy Intensive But Still Vulnerable
- Canada is less energy-intensive now than in the 1970s, but oil and gas still supply ~two-thirds of energy.
- Gasoline remains ~3% of household spending, a stable share since the 1950s, so shocks still bite budgets noticeably.
Oil Disruptions Raise Fertilizer And Shipping Costs
- Oil shocks also hit fertilizer and shipping costs, extending pressure to food and broader goods.
- Tombe points to tightened natural gas, fertilizer supply, and rising container and insurance costs as compounding effects.