Bloomberg Talks Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran Talks Oil Prices, Monetary Policy
Mar 23, 2026
Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve Governor who takes part in FOMC decisions, discusses monetary policy and oil shocks. He urges caution versus reacting to short-term price moves. He talks about anchoring inflation expectations and when energy-driven shocks would prompt policy changes. He explains why he trimmed his expected rate cuts and weighs balanced risks from the recent oil shock.
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Don’t Set Policy On Short Term Oil Shocks
- Stephen Miran argues the Fed should not react to short-term oil shocks and must wait for full information before changing policy.
- He notes CPI swap markets beyond one year haven't moved and five-year forward expectations are declining, so no medium-term de-anchoring yet.
Oil Shocks Usually Hit Headline Not Core
- Miran explains oil shocks typically raise headline inflation but rarely lift core inflation enough to warrant policy moves.
- He cites stable medium-term inflation expectations and declining wage pressures as reasons to look through the shock.
Watch For Second Round Effects Before Hiking
- Do monitor for second-round effects before tightening policy; specifically watch inflation expectations beyond one year and wage-price spirals.
- Miran warns first-round oil price moves alone are not a traditional central-bank trigger for rate hikes.