Forecast 2050 The surprising truth behind collapsing birthrates | Tyler Cowen on 2050
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Mar 4, 2026 
Tyler Cowen, economist and author known for his work on growth and innovation, offers a bold tour of the next 25 years. He traces plunging birthrates to changing contraception and social shifts. He maps aging societies, immigration’s role, AI’s stealthy rise into institutions, the surge of caregiving and fake jobs, and the rapid technological revolution remaking norms.
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State And Big Tech Will Become Mutually Reinforcing
- Corporate and government power will increasingly interlock rather than check each other.
- Cowen expects big tech and state to 'marry', expanding mutual power instead of producing decisive regulatory rollbacks.
Corporations May Govern New Domains Without Replacing States
- Corporate de facto governance will arise in novel domains like the upper atmosphere or satellite belts.
- Cowen imagines corporate-led projects (e.g., beamed solar power) allied with governments, not fully supplanting states.
Cowen's 60‑40 Bet On Life In The Outer Solar System
- Cowen bets 60‑40 that moons like Saturn host life, though not intelligent life.
- He predicts robotic exploration will show 'shrimpy' life forms that excite public interest but change little in daily life.