Understanding the Complexity of Modern Technology with Samuel Arbesman | Overcomplicated

Oct 27, 2025

Join complexity scientist Samuel Arbesman, author of Overcomplicated, as he unravels the challenges of modern technology. He discusses how unexpected system failures, like the NYSE shutdown and Toyota's acceleration issues, stem from technological accretion and interconnectedness. Samuel emphasizes the importance of understanding the limits of human comprehension, the balance between generalists and specialists in innovation, and the necessity of intellectual humility when navigating complex systems. A fascinating dive into the intricacies of our digital world!

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ANECDOTE

2015 Stock Exchange Outage

On July 8, 2015, the New York Stock Exchange and other systems briefly suspended trading, sparking cyberattack fears.
Subsequent analysis pointed to buggy code and simultaneous failures, not a coordinated attack.

INSIGHT

Accretion Creates Fragile Legacy Dependencies

Accretion means systems gain features and hacks over time, creating fragile legacy dependencies.
These legacy components often remain essential despite being poorly understood or unmaintained.

INSIGHT

Complicated Versus Complex Systems

Complicated systems have many parts; complex systems produce emergent, nonlinear behavior.
Arbesman highlights that interactions and feedback create behaviors you cannot predict from parts alone.

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In this episode, we explore the intricate world of modern technology with Samuel Arbesman, author of Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension.

Why did the New York Stock Exchange shut down in 2015? What caused Toyota vehicles to accelerate without warning? Samuel reveals how technological "accretion" and interconnected systems create outcomes that even developers, engineers, and executives can't predict.

We discuss:

Why technology often evolves beyond human comprehension
How "spaghetti code" and legacy systems create systemic risk
The biological limits of human understanding
Generalists vs. specialists in innovation
The balance between intellectual humility and progress
How we can better live with—and design—overcomplicated systems

This is a must-listen for leaders, technologists, and innovators navigating today's complex digital ecosystem.

🎙 Hosted by Aidan McCullen, keynote speaker on change and innovation.

💡 Sponsored by Kyndryl

Episode Notes / Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message 00:19 Unsolved Mysteries in Technology 01:18 Guest Introduction: Samuel Arbesman 01:57 Overview of 'Overcomplicated' 03:25 Case Studies: Stock Exchange and Toyota 07:53 The Concept of Accretion 15:48 Complexity vs. Complication 26:49 Interoperability and Trade-offs 29:29 Systemic Failures and Interoperability 29:53 Open Source Software and Maintenance Challenges 32:00 Biological Limits of Human Comprehension 34:51 The Role of Technology in Understanding Complex Systems 40:52 The Burden of Knowledge and the Need for Generalists 50:53 Physics vs. Biological Thinking in Innovation 55:49 Final Thoughts on Humility and Understanding Find Samuel Arbesman: https://arbesman.net [Aidan McCullen is a internationally Thinkers50 recognised thought leader on change and innovation. He is the author of Undisruptable and host of the globally acclaimed Innovation Show. A former international rugby player, Aidan now helps leaders and organisations thrive in an age of constant reinvention.]