This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump's Syria shift – A pivotal moment for Damascus and the Middle East?
May 15, 2025
Dareen Khalifa is a Senior Advisor for Dialogue Promotion at the International Crisis Group, while Karam Shaar is a Syrian economist and consultant with the United Nations. They delve into the implications of Trump's recent decision to lift sanctions on Syria, igniting celebrations in Damascus. The discussion covers the nation's daunting path to recovery, the fragility of its political transitions, and the complexities of shifting alliances with regional powers. Economic challenges and sectarian tensions are also highlighted, showcasing a crucial moment for Syria's future.
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Fragile Transition Faces Sectarian Risks
- Syria's fragile transition struggles with a collapsing economy and deteriorating security, especially in sectarian mixed areas.
- There's widespread fear among minorities about whether the new government can prevent further massacres.
Karam Shaar's Emotional Return
- Karam Shaar felt a mix of shock, happiness, and hope in his visits to Damascus since Assad's fall.
- He was surprised by how quickly the Assad regime crumbled.
Illicit Economies Sustained Assad
- The Assad regime relied heavily on illicit economies like the captagon trade for revenue and diplomacy.
- Since regime collapse, seizures of captagon have increased twentyfold, undermining the regime's narrative.