Bitcoin for Millennials

Is Bitcoin On The Cusp of a Next Big Run? New Math Says THIS | Plan C | BFM240

Mar 16, 2026
Plan C, a quantitative Bitcoin analyst known for mathematical price and miner-cost models, breaks down data-driven views. He links Bitcoin to the business cycle and PMI, debates halving impact versus macro liquidity, and maps downside with cost-of-production, quantile bands, and power-law fits. He also explains why model start dates and stability matter for long-term fair-value estimates.
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INSIGHT

Bitcoin Cycle Mirrors Business Cycle

  • Bitcoin's price cycle increasingly tracks the macro business cycle, not just halvings or psychological four-year narratives.
  • Plan C ties PMIs and liquidity to Bitcoin's tailwinds/headwinds and calls recent rallies a quasi or pseudo bull market due to contractionary PMI.
INSIGHT

Halving Influence Is Fading Over Time

  • The halving's explanatory power has declined while the business cycle's correlation with Bitcoin has grown since about 2016.
  • Plan C shows a dashed halving influence line falling and a business-cycle correlation line rising over successive cycles.
ADVICE

Use Miner Cost Bands As A Cycle Floor Tool

  • Treat miner cost of production as a key floor indicator because commodities rarely trade below their production cost long-term.
  • Paul’s issuance-and-difficulty based band places average miner cost roughly between $50k–$65k today.
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