Oil Supply Shock: Will Supply Security Now Trump Cost?

With 80% of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz bound for Asia, the region faces an existential threat to its energy supply. Brent Crude’s $100 price tag isn't just a "fear premium"; it reflects a structural risk driven by infrastructure damage and a complex production restart process that can take months. 

Rystad Energy’s Head of APAC Oil & Gas Research Prateek Pandey breaks down why energy security has replaced affordability as the top priority for Asian policymakers and what this means for Malaysia’s upstream investments.

Tune In To Learn: 

• The 15% Risk Premium: Why a ceasefire won't immediately bring prices back to $70, and the "physics" of why restarting production isn't an on/off switch.

• The Shutdown Model: Why only 20% of shut-in production can be recovered within two weeks, while full restoration can take up to three and a half months.

• Asian Dependency: Why the Philippines and Pakistan are the hardest hit, with over 95% dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas.

• Malaysia’s Fuel Subsidy Pressure: How sustained $100 oil could drive Malaysia's inflation to 3% and significantly bloat fuel subsidy costs.

• The 2030 Plateau: Analysing Rystad’s data on Malaysia’s gas extraction peak and the urgent need for "Frontier Exploration" in Sabah and Sarawak.

• The Rise of Mobile Assets: Why Floating LNG (FLNG) and FSRUs are the preferred strategic choice for developing smaller, stranded gas fields with shorter payback periods.

• The Energy Transition Pivot: How the conflict has pushed "commercial economics" to the forefront, challenging the timeline for green energy vs. energy security.

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