Markets Plus Middle East Tensions, Oil Shocks, and What Investors Need to Know
Mar 9, 2026
Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO, gives macro perspectives on how oil shocks influence inflation, growth, and central bank moves. Randy Ollenberger, Oil & Gas Producers Analyst at BMO Capital Markets, breaks down supply disruptions, tanker logjams, and risks keeping oil above $100. They discuss who wins and who loses, second‑round cost effects, and implications for energy equities.
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Persian Gulf Supply Cut Is Driving Oil Higher
- About 20% of global oil and LNG supply has been effectively stopped from leaving the Persian Gulf, which is driving oil toward $100 a barrel.
- Randy Ollenberger warns that strikes could damage Gulf infrastructure and push prices much higher, possibly >$150 if deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz stop.
Adjust Portfolios For Stronger Energy Free Cash Flow
- Investors should recognize higher oil means more cash for energy companies, improving balance sheets and raising potential shareholder returns.
- Randy Ollenberger expects surplus cash to flow to buybacks and dividends, boosting sector valuations.
20 Percent Higher Oil Could Add Half A Point To Inflation
- BMO scenarios now assume roughly a 20% rise in average oil prices this year, lifting average from ~$60 to about $72 per barrel.
- Doug Porter estimates that adds a little over 0.5 percentage points to inflation in the U.S. and Canada, pushing averages above 3%.