Full Signal Wall Street MISSED this trade | Steve Hou
Feb 19, 2026
Steve Hou, a Bloomberg quantitative researcher with a PhD in financial economics, explains why geopolitics will drive markets in 2026. He breaks down US vs China camp formation, regional winners like Korea and Latin America, and how AI investment maps onto supply chains. He also covers currency effects, managed decoupling, and whether to own both camps or pick a side.
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Geopolitics Is Macro Now
- Geopolitics is becoming a first-order macro driver for markets in 2026.
- Assets are acquiring loyalties as global supply chains and influence reconfigure.
Democracies Outperformed The US
- US equity leadership hid large international gains as democracies outperformed dramatically.
- A democracies index beat the US by roughly 65% over the last year.
Which Countries Benefit Most
- Winners include South Korea, Taiwan and parts of LATAM tied to supply-chain demand.
- These markets rose from being natural fits for US-aligned manufacturing and commodities supply.