The Daily Aus Why voters are turning to One Nation
Mar 23, 2026
A surprise political shake-up in South Australia as a right-wing party surges ahead of a major centre-right party. Clear explanation of how primary and preference voting can distort seat outcomes. A look at the party’s history, policy focus and growing presence across states. A preview of the looming federal by-election that could confirm whether the trend is national.
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One Nation's Historic Primary Vote Surge In South Australia
- One Nation surged to second place on primary votes in South Australia, taking about 22% while the Liberals fell to ~19% primary.
- This is historically significant because it's the first time the Liberals were not top two on primary vote in SA and One Nation's near-20% swing came from running candidates in all 47 seats.
Primary Votes Don’t Translate Directly To Seats
- Primary vote doesn't equal seats; despite topping primary votes One Nation won fewer lower-house seats than the Liberals.
- The Liberals dropped from 16 seats to around 4–6, showing vote distribution and preference flows still shape outcomes.
A Nationwide Blitz Turned Polling Into Votes
- One Nation was barely present in SA before this year but contested every lower house seat and jumped from 2.6% in 2022 to ~22% now.
- That blitz campaign (running in all 47 seats) produced the massive swing that polling had foreshadowed.