The Bulwark Podcast Tom Nichols: Sinking Into the Mire of a Longer War?
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Mar 13, 2026 
Tom Nichols, political scientist and Naval War College professor emeritus known for national security commentary. He dissects recent Iran-war developments and whether US moves signal escalation. He worries about leadership failures, cognitive decline, and shrinking military and diplomatic capacity. He also explores how the conflict reshapes oil markets, benefits Russia, and strains homeland security.
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Iran Action Ends Up Aiding Russia
- The Iran campaign benefits Russia economically and strategically, creating a second-order payoff Trump’s team ignored.
- Nichols explains oil at $100/barrel and eased Russia sanctions are replenishing Moscow while weakening Western positions.
War Planning Ignored Basic War Game Assumptions
- The administration showed strategic amateurism by being surprised at predictable Iranian moves like mining the Straits of Hormuz.
- Nichols says war planning ignored common war‑game scenarios and assumed unrealistic quick victories.
Victory Disease and Personal Hubris Drive Policy
- Nichols diagnoses the war decision as a mix of hubris,