Squawk Pod The Biggest Oil Disruption in History 3/9/26
Mar 9, 2026
Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs President of Global Affairs and Iran expert, and Amos Hochstein, seasoned energy policy advisor, unpack a historic oil shock. They discuss tanker stoppages in the Strait of Hormuz, regional output cuts and storage exhaustion. They cover market forecasts, China’s role, risks to shipping and the possible military and political off-ramps.
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Markets Reprice Fast Toward Severe Deficit
- Traders rapidly re-priced markets from a projected surplus to a potential large deficit after tanker traffic halted and storage concerns rose across Gulf producers.
- Goldman warned prices could reach $150 a barrel if the Strait remains disrupted and G7 ministers are considering coordinated SPR releases.
Storage Limits Are Forcing Producers To Cut Output
- Regional storage capacity is rapidly becoming the constraint, with an estimate of about 25 days of remaining storage in the Gulf.
- Producers are already curbing output because they can pump oil but lack export capacity when tankers won't transit the strait.
Declare Objectives Achieved To Create An Off Ramp
- Consider a political off-ramp where the U.S. declares it has degraded Iran's military, nuclear and missile capabilities to justify de-escalation.
- Amos Hochstein says a presidential declaration of achieved objectives could allow a pause while retaining air superiority and deterrence.