Know More. Risk Better. Strategy Global Market Update: 2026 Outlook
Nov 24, 2025
Zach Griffiths is U.S. Head of Macro and Investment Grade Strategy at CreditSights, bringing insights on U.S. GDP slowdown and Fed rate cuts. Logan Miller, Head of Euro Strategy, discusses the ECB's cautious stance and the impact of Germany's fiscal stimulus. Regis Châtelier, specializing in emerging markets, highlights strong fundamentals and growth potential in EM. The panel delves into credit market risks, the influence of AI on issuance, and concludes with actionable scenarios for investors looking to navigate the shifting landscape into 2026.
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EM Fundamentals Improved But Valuations Tight
- Regis Châtelier notes EM fundamentals strengthened in 2025 with upgrades outpacing downgrades and growth near 3.9–4% in 2026.
- He warns valuations are tight and EM carries limited upside versus developed markets despite stronger fundamentals.
Drivers For Wider IG Spreads
- Zach expects U.S. IG spreads to widen to ~120bps by end-2026 due to slower growth, margin pressure, and heavy tech debt issuance.
- A fading technical tailwind (lower MMF income) meets higher supply, pressuring spreads wider.
Favor Higher Quality And Mid Tenors
- Move up in quality within IG by favoring single-A names over BBBs to capture excess returns as spreads normalize.
- Target 3–5 year maturities for excess-return focus and use a barbell for total-return mandates.