Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Modest Proposal – Value is Dead, Long Live Value - [Invest Like the Best, EP.95]

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Jul 17, 2018
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INSIGHT

Why Simple Value Screens Work Less Often Today

  • Value's historic premium narrowed because academic factorization and capital poured into screens, making simple value screens less effective today.
  • Modest Proposal traces value's rise, career-risk swings (late 90s vs. 2002) and says buying discount-to-cash still works but is much harder now.
INSIGHT

Human Behavior Is The Last Source Of Persistent Mispricing

  • Human behavioral overreaction is the remaining exploitable anomaly because other anomalies get arbitraged away by capital and quants.
  • Overreactions vary by sector: small-cap consumer internet can drop 25% on a miss versus a few percent in old-line industries.
ADVICE

Do Deep Preparation And Wait For Fat Pitches

  • Prepare deeply in chosen domains and wait patiently for episodic fat pitches rather than trading daily mispricings.
  • Focus on intersections of technology and legacy industries like media, distribution, and retail to spot slow-to-occur disruptions.
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