2026 Lithium & Rare Earths LIVE DISCUSSION | X Spaces

Jan 19, 2026

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In this first RK Equity X Spaces of 2026, we (Howard Klein, Matt Fernley, and Rodney Hooper) pull together the key threads shaping the battery materials and critical minerals landscape as the year begins. The discussion focuses on how lithium is moving back toward fundamentals, why energy storage is increasingly driving marginal demand, and what that means for investors across the supply chain.

Chapters

(00:00:00) Introduction
(00:08:19) Macro And Silver
(00:10:55) Lithium: Demand And Supply
(00:13:26) 5 Lithium Themes For 2026
(00:15:24) Sodium-Ion Substitution
(00:19:51) Pricing And Inventories
(00:27:51) Buy-Side Outlook
(00:37:18) EVs And ESS Growth
(00:54:02) Silver: Demand Debate
(00:59:45) Rare Earths And Minor Metals
(01:11:11) U.S. Policy And Geopolitics
(01:22:24) Defense Batteries And Constraints
(01:26:35) Wrap-Up

We review recent signals from the market and the sell side—including tightening inventories, stronger-than-expected energy storage demand, and shifting bank sentiment—and then pressure-test the outlook with a mix of independent research and buy-side perspectives. A key theme is whether this cycle differs from prior EV-led lithium cycles, and how supply response, capital discipline, and policy decisions may influence price behavior through 2026–2027.

Rodney provides macro context around the “debasement trade” and the case for hard assets, using silver as an example of where industrial demand and investment demand can intersect. Matt outlines the core questions for 2026: demand durability, potential substitution risks (including sodium-ion in stationary storage), and how quickly supply can respond to higher prices.

We’re joined by guests across the ecosystem, including:

- Andy Leyland (SC Insights) on “five things to watch” for lithium in 2026—forecast revisions, ESS demand, feasibility study activity, capex inflation, and evolving product pathways.

- Tomasz Nadrowski (Amvest Terraden Critical Materials Fund) with a cautious buy-side lens on cycle positioning, China-driven dynamics, and capital allocation challenges.

- Tom Woolrych (Deutsche Rohstoff) on equity sentiment, lithium cycle behavior, and where risk/reward may be most attractive.

- Chris Berry (House Mountain Partners) on U.S. policy, supply chain security, defense and data-center demand, and why lesser-known critical minerals may see more institutional attention.

Topics covered include lithium inventories and restocking cycles, ESS vs. EV demand, supply elasticity, capex and project economics, sodium-ion substitution risk, silver’s demand drivers and potential substitution in solar, and how geopolitics is influencing critical minerals strategy.