ChinaPower Assessing China’s Wartime Sustainment: A Conversation with Robert Greenway
Mar 26, 2026
Robert Greenway, director at the Allison Center for National Security and former senior U.S. official, discusses vulnerabilities in China’s fuel and ammunition sustainment. He outlines how external oil links and advanced-munitions dependencies create exploitable gaps. He also covers risks to U.S. logistics and policy steps to bolster fuel, distribution, and munition preparedness.
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China's Strategic Reserve Gives Time But Distribution Is Weak
- China's fuel system has strengths like a ~1.2–1.3 billion barrel strategic petroleum reserve, which extends its operational sustainment.
- The key vulnerability is distribution and external dependencies for commodities and inputs, not just storage.
Early Fuel Interdiction Is Essential Against China
- China could sustain military operations for months even with degraded imports due to reserves and potential civilian-to-military diversion (we modeled up to 30%).
- Fuel disruptions must occur early in conflict to meaningfully shorten China's operational endurance.
Middle East Moves Amplify Leverage Over China
- U.S. diplomatic and military actions in Venezuela and the Middle East help stabilize global energy markets and constrain Chinese access to oil.
- China sources ~43% of its oil from the Middle East, making those diplomatic moves strategically significant.