Odd Lots

New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets

135 snips
Feb 12, 2026
Michael Selig, newly sworn CFTC chairman who oversees derivatives and prediction markets. He discusses why oddball Super Bowl bets are regulated as financial contracts. He talks about age limits, market integrity, crypto risks like perpetual futures, and how the agency balances tradition with fast‑moving innovation.
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ANECDOTE

Super Bowl Bets Brought Prediction Markets To Life

  • Tracy and Joe discuss Super Bowl prediction bets like Cardi B performing and how platforms split on resolution.
  • The hosts highlight prediction markets becoming embedded in pop culture and live broadcasts.
ADVICE

Regulators Will Modernize Slowly

  • Expect the CFTC to prioritize traditional futures and swaps while also rulemaking for new markets like prediction platforms and crypto.
  • Selig signals regulators will modernize rules and leverage blockchain where appropriate.
ADVICE

Expect Faster Reviews And Tech Use

  • The CFTC is hiring and using AI tools to improve market surveillance and process applications faster.
  • Selig says the agency processed an exchange application in a record ~200 days and is staffing up further.
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