US recession is now consensus (but not for us)

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the challenges of predicting recessions, the significance of the VIX volatility index, and investment recommendations for navigating uncertain economic times.

• Difficulty in predicting recessions - Economists historically struggle with forecasting the timing of recessions due to the complexity of business cycles.

• Stock market as a recession Indicator - The stock market is highlighted as a potential predictor of recessions, typically looking 6 to 12 months ahead. However, it also produces many false signals through market corrections that do not necessarily indicate a recession

• VIX Volatility Index - Historically, when the VIX exceeds 50 and then declines to under 30, it has been followed by positive stock market returns. This pattern has occurred in 1988, 2002, 2009, and 2020,with an average S&P 500 return of 18% over the following 12 months

• Investment Recommendations: instead of focusing on the Nasdaq 100 or the classic capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, investors should consider an equal-weight US stock market index to reduce bias towards tech stocks, as well as UK, Japanese and Chinese stocks. 

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