WSJ What’s News Are Higher Oil Prices the New Normal?
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Mar 24, 2026 Jorge León, geopolitical analyst and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, explains how Iran’s actions around the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping oil markets. He discusses why disruptions may keep oil prices high, how damaged refineries and logistics slow restoration, and why alternative supplies are limited. Short, sharp analysis of market risks and supply constraints.
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Iran's Enduring Leverage Over Oil Supply
- Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz gives it a durable asymmetric lever to push oil prices higher by disrupting energy infrastructure.
- Rystad Energy estimates Middle East refinery runs fell from ~26 million to ~16 million barrels per day due to attacks.
Reopening Hormuz Won't Instantly Restore Supply
- Even if shipping resumes, physical oil supply will lag because wells, refineries, pipelines, and storage were damaged or shut in.
- Jorge León notes reservoir pressure loss and logistical backlogs mean months before full output returns.
Scale Of The Refinery Shortfall
- Damage has knocked out roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East refinery capacity, creating a large supply gap few other sources can fill.
- Small boosts from Venezuela and U.S. shale (hundreds of thousands b/d) won't offset a 10 million b/d hit.