The Morning Brief Markets May Be Misreading This War: UBS’ Chief Strategist
9 snips
Mar 24, 2026 Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS Investment Bank with 20+ years tracking global markets. He warns markets may be treating Middle East conflict as a short shock. He compares potential oil losses to Russia‑Ukraine, explores long‑term energy security, and examines how an oil or liquidity shock could threaten AI investment and India’s domestic investor resilience.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Markets Assume The Shock Will Be Short Lived
- Markets are treating the Middle East conflict like a short, tariff-style shock that will quickly resolve.
- Bhanu Baweja warns wars evolve unpredictably and this one involves multiple actors—US, Israel and Iran—making rapid resolution unlikely.
This Oil Shock Is Bigger Than Russia Ukraine
- The current oil disruption is much larger than the Russia-Ukraine shock because the Strait of Hormuz carries far more volume.
- Baweja quantifies risks: ~20.5mbd transit vs earlier ~6mbd at risk, implying potential net losses of ~10–11mbd even after offsets.
Where Oil Settles Matters More Than The Spike
- Peak headline oil prints (e.g., $180–$200) matter less than the level where oil settles after the shock.
- Baweja fears a new higher equilibrium (perhaps $80–$90) as countries build energy security and reserves, keeping demand structurally higher.