Pitch The PM EP 021: Make America skinny again? The oral GLP-1 opportunity at Eli Lilly ($LLY)
Jan 15, 2026
Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, dives into Eli Lilly's groundbreaking oral GLP-1 treatment. He discusses its potential to transform the obesity market, emphasizing that effective delivery systems drive adoption more than mere efficacy. The conversation also covers how pharmacy benefit managers influence drug selection, the misleading nature of list prices, and the broader economic implications of obesity treatments. Sriker provides insights on market dynamics, competitive landscape, and why he's bullish on Lilly's growthtrajectory.
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Oral Pricing Likely Lower Than Injectables
- List prices for injectables were high, but oral entrants will likely list lower, easing access.
- Sriker expects oral pricing around $150–$350/month versus prior $200–$450 ranges.
Priority Review Can Accelerate Approval
- Lilly and Novo received expedited review priority vouchers, speeding approvals.
- Sriker sees Lilly's oral approval as possible as early as January or by late Q2 depending on review timing.
GLP-1 Franchise Dominates Lilly Revenue
- GLP-1 franchise already supplies two-thirds of Lilly's revenue and will grow further.
- Sriker models the franchise reaching $80–$90B including diabetes and obesity over time.