What's Your Number? Breaking and Rebuilding Iran’s Economy - with Miad Maleki
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Mar 25, 2026 Miad Maleki, a former senior Treasury OFAC official who helped design U.S. sanctions on Iran. He discusses how sanctions battered oil, petrochemicals and financial networks. Short takes explore the IRGC’s grip on Iran’s economy, the risks of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and what rebuilding might look like if the regime falls.
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How Sanctions Collapsed Iran Oil Exports
- The 2017–2020 U.S. maximum pressure campaign cut Iran's oil exports from over 2 million to under 100,000 barrels per day.
- Treasury measures targeted importers, transport networks, and petrochemical buyers to choke revenue and shrink Iran's proxy funding within two years.
Opaqueness and Currency Tell The Real Economic Story
- Iran's economy is opaque and distorted by corruption, making official statistics unreliable and black-market FX rates the best real-time signal.
- The rial lost roughly 60% after June and hit record lows, while $13bn of crude sits on tankers awaiting buyers.
The IRGC Is Iran's Economic Powerhouse
- The IRGC operates as an economic empire controlling roughly a third to over half of Iran's formal economy.
- It owns construction, banks, telecoms, pharma, and oil-linked entities like Khatam al-Anbiya and Sepah Bank that funnel revenue into the regime and proxies.