Reuters Morning Bid Week in Review: Whither the ceasefire
Apr 11, 2026
Markets surged on news of a ceasefire and political messaging that sent investors scrambling. Discussion covers why shipping remains stalled despite optimism and how damaged Gulf oil infrastructure will slow flows. Talk explores sanctions and crypto fee proposals tied to transit risks. Also covered are SPR releases, rising fuel costs feeding into consumer prices, and looming bank earnings as a market distraction.
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Ceasefire Optimism Versus Physical Supply Constraints
- Markets jumped on the US–Iran ceasefire announcement but physical realities have not changed.
- Only a handful of ships moved through the Strait of Hormuz and about 1,400 vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, keeping supply constrained.
Crypto Toll And Sanctions Could Block Ship Transits
- Practical hurdles could blunt the ceasefire's effect because Iran seeks to charge tankers up to $2 million in cryptocurrency to pass.
- Paying that fee may breach US sanctions and shipowners may avoid transits, prolonging disruptions.
Strategic Releases Can Cap Prices But Not Restore Flows
- Governments are releasing oil to temper price spikes, with the US offering 30 million barrels and Japan leasing oil short-term.
- These moves cap immediate market panic but cannot restore physical pipeline and shipping capacity quickly.