The Market Huddle THE OIL MARKET HAS SPOKEN (Guest: Craig Shapiro)
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Jan 31, 2026 Craig Shapiro, macro strategist and former hedge fund/commodity equities portfolio manager, shares market color and trading stories from Osprey and SAC. He talks liquidity lessons from 2008, precious metals’ parabolic moves, oil’s role as a volatility catalyst, dollar dynamics and geopolitics, and where rotations into commodities, Japan, and EM may be unfolding.
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Early Career Liquidity Lesson
- Craig Shapiro described Osprey's 2008 blow-up from a basis and liquidity mismatch in illiquid commodity equities. He said being long small-cap illiquids while short commodities made exits impossible when liquidity dried up.
Learning Execution From Steve Cohen
- Craig recounted working directly behind Steve Cohen and learning obsessive execution and strict profit-taking. He credited Cohen's focus on execution and booking profits for improving his risk management.
Why Gold Melted Up Then Spiked Volatility
- Gold's surge combined supply-demand, fiat debasement fears, and speculative leverage, with Asian physical demand moving metal East. Risk managers began de-risking as spreads, volumes, and vol rose, forcing a portfolio deleveraging episode.
