On The Market

2026 Mortgage Update: Lower Rates, ARMs Return, and When to Refi

Feb 17, 2026
Guest
Jeff Welgan
Jeff Welgan, VP of Investor Lending at Blueprint Home Loans with 22 years in mortgages, shares why 2026 could be a prime year for rental financing. He discusses lower rates, the return of safer ARMs for investors, HELOCs with no closing costs, and when refinancing or rate buydowns make sense. Practical financing moves and lender caution are highlighted.
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INSIGHT

Small Rate Moves Drive Big Demand

  • Mortgage rates falling about a point in 6–9 months has meaningfully increased refinance and purchase demand.
  • Jeff Welgan says that lower rates are reactivating sidelined buyers and improving affordability pressures.
INSIGHT

Policy Momentum Could Lower Rates

  • Policy and Treasury actions are pushing momentum toward lower mortgage rates in 2026.
  • Jeff predicts a rate range around 5.5%–6.5% and sees room for further decline, not a cliff drop.
ADVICE

Use ARMs For Shorter Holds

  • Consider ARMs for shorter holds because they offer materially lower rates and long fixed periods now.
  • Jeff recommends choosing a longer fixed period than your expected hold (e.g., pick 7-year if you expect 5 years).
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