The Foreign Desk Explainer 507: Pakistan-Afghanistan: What’s fuelling this week’s overlooked conflict?
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Mar 4, 2026 Airstrikes and cross-border strikes have suddenly escalated into open conflict along a porous, contested frontier. Discussion covers fierce claims and counterclaims about casualties and equipment losses. The history and tactics of the TTP and its alleged ties to regional actors are traced. Longstanding issues around the Durand Line and shifting strategic calculations are examined.
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Conflicting Claims And Drone Reach
- Recent clashes include claims and counterclaims: Afghanistan says it shot down a Pakistani jet and captured soldiers; Pakistan denies some claims but admits casualties.
- Reports even suggest an Afghan drone reached near Islamabad's Nur Khan base.
Global Distraction Risks Escalation
- The world’s focus on other crises may worsen the Pakistan-Afghanistan flare-up as actors take liberties when they think nobody's watching.
- Andrew Muller warns reduced attention can embolden escalatory behaviour.
TTP Attacks Spark Cross Border Strikes
- Pakistan claims to have killed hundreds of TTP fighters via air raids and cross-border artillery strikes.
- The TTP is a Pakistan-focused Taliban franchise responsible for attacks on schools, police and Shia mosques and accuses Afghanistan of sheltering them.