Bonds Smell Risk, Will The Market React? | On The Margin

In this episode I am joined by my colleagues and special guest hosts Jack Farley and Byron Gilliam. We went through a whole range of topics today, beginning with the bond market.

We gave everyone an update on the rate hikes that the market is pricing in (spoiler alert: it's a lot), the historic rout happening at the long end of the curve, and how the Fed is likely to respond.

We also discussed how to play a bond sell off, and the "risk vs reward" of investing in risk assets at the current time. We also covered the additional tail risk of Shanghai's recent COVID shutdown, and how that may exacerbate the current inflationary impulse.

Next we went on to discuss Peter Thiel's recent comments at Bitcoin 2022, in which he decried the "gerontocracy" of Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink. He also said that Bitcoin could eventually grow larger than the global stock market, which is currently worth roughly $115 trillion.

Next we moved on to the growth of Lightning Network, and the recent announcements that from both Strike and Robinhood.

Finally we moved on to discuss Terra's $100 million purchase of AVAX, but for our takes there you will have to tune into the episode.

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Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96

Follow Byron Gilliam: @bgilliam1982

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Referenced In The Show:

Jim Bianco Thread On Bonds: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1512106368647536649

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:36) Permissionless

(01:48) The Bond Market

(06:20) The Stock Market 

(12:10) Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III

(16:40) Risk/Reward In Risk Assets

(20:20) Lockdowns In Shanghai

(25:40) Peter Thiel Bitcoin Miami 2022 Speech

(32:05) The Lightning Network 

(40:35) Blockdaemon Ad

(41:45) LFG Acquires $100 Million in Avax

(57:18) Final Thoughts