The Paul Barron Crypto Show Jerome Powell Rate Cuts vs Uncertainty📈
Mar 18, 2026
Live reaction to Jerome Powell's FOMC remarks and what a Fed pause means for markets. Heated media exchange with Powell and its political fallout. Hot PPI prints, oil spikes, and how energy shocks could throttle rate-cut hopes. Discussion of GDP weakness, rising debt, tariff effects, and the tightrope facing monetary policy amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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Oil Spikes Historically Precede Recessions And Tie The Fed's Hands
- Rising oil due to Middle East conflict risks triggering recessions historically and limits Fed room to ease.
- Paul Barron and guest clips show oil spikes previously preceded recessions and now the Fed's balance sheet constraints reduce policy space.
Powell Emphasizes Data Dependence And Middle East Uncertainty
- Jerome Powell said policy is appropriate now and the Fed remains data dependent, keeping options open for further adjustments.
- He warned Middle East developments add uncertainty and that higher oil could push near-term inflation up, affecting guidance.
Tariffs Are Inflating Goods Component Of Core PCE
- Core PCE is still elevated: total PCE rose 2.8% and core PCE 3.0% year-over-year, with goods inflation boosted by tariffs.
- Powell pointed out much of the core overshoot stems from tariff-driven goods inflation rather than services.