The Market Huddle ROI not AGI (Guest: Leonid Mironov)
73 snips
May 10, 2026 
Leonid Mironov, portfolio manager at GavCal Capital focused on China, commodities and macro themes. He explains why China’s producer-price deflation may be reversing and how anti-involution policies are changing pricing and corporate behavior. He contrasts China’s ROI-driven AI approach with AGI hype and discusses oil, metals and supply risks in a shifting global market.
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Xiaomi Store Bargain Shows Rebate Culture Had Distorted Prices
- Leonid experienced heavy in-store rebate bargaining in China where official Xiaomi stores gave ~40% off via rebate transfers.
- He and family paid ~65% of list price after a bidding/rebate negotiation in Beijing last summer.
Chinese Companies Are Returning Cash To Shareholders
- Chinese corporate behavior is shifting: 2025 saw net issuance turn negative as buybacks and dividends outpaced IPOs.
- That signals a deliberate policy push to make markets a real domestic financing channel and attract household savings.
Expect Adjustment Not Permanent Oil Shortages
- Prepare for supply rerouting and capacity rebuilds after a Gulf disruption rather than assuming permanent shortages.
- Saudi pipelines and alternative export routes (Fujairah, other refineries) can be ramped over 12–18 months to restore flows.