Prof G Markets Iran Deadline Looms for an Economy on the Edge
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Apr 7, 2026 
Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist, joins Paul Kedrosky, SK Ventures investor and tech analyst, for a sharp look at a shaky economy. They dig into jobs data, Iran-related market risks, and why the next 24 hours matter. Then the focus shifts to OpenAI and Anthropic finances, the AI IPO race, market disruption, and what OpenAI’s TBPN deal signals for the future of media.
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The Jobs Report Looked Stronger Than It Really Was
- Justin Wolfers says the March jobs report was better than feared and suggests the U.S. was not in recession before the Iran war.
- He says headline gains were flattered by strike reversals and weather payback, so the report had a strong top line but a weak underbelly.
Why Payroll Data Still Matters Despite Revisions
- Wolfers argues payrolls still matter because they are the timeliest and least bad indicator in a fog of imperfect economic data.
- He distinguishes monthly revisions, seasonal-factor updates, and annual benchmark revisions that Jerome Powell warned could later reduce reported job growth.
Why Trump's Iran Threat Mattered More Than Jobs Data
- Wolfers says Trump's Iran tweet mattered more than the jobs report because it signaled both war trajectory and confidence in U.S. leadership.
- He argues markets also price presidential competence, as they did during the trade war and the sell America trade after Liberation Day.