Net Assessment New Denial Strategy? Assessing the 2026 NDS
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Jan 29, 2026 
Kelly Grieco, a Stimson Center senior fellow on U.S. defense and Indo-Pacific alliances. She discusses the 2026 National Defense Strategy’s priorities, its take on burden sharing with allies, tensions between homeland/Indo-Pacific focus and global strike needs, and the document’s ambiguity on China, Taiwan, and force design.
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China Framed As Economic Access Problem
- The China section stresses economic stakes and access to the Indo-Pacific more than detailed military metrics.
- Using terms like 'favorable balance of power' signals preference for an upper-hand balance rather than simple parity.
Model Ally Metrics Mislead Burden Sharing
- The NDS treats Israel as a 'model ally' despite it not being a treaty ally, revealing a narrow burden-sharing metric.
- Kelly Grieco cautions GDP-share metrics miss how allies can draw the U.S. into conflicts.
Nuclear Posture Gets Only A Paragraph
- The document includes only a brief paragraph on nuclear posture, leaving major nuclear issues underdeveloped.
- That brevity contrasts with expectations after a year of attention and raises questions about deterrence details.