Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 13th, 2026
May 13, 2026
Dr. Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley macro chief, shares forecasts on inflation, Fed timing, oil shocks and AI-driven demand. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale FX strategist, breaks down UK political turmoil, gilt selloffs, currency risk and what could make the pound rally. Short, sharp discussions on disinflation, central bank policy and sovereign funding pressures.
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UK Political Chaos Reveals Fiscal Fragility
- UK political turmoil has exposed structural fiscal vulnerabilities that make gilts sensitive to investor confidence.
- Kit Juckes highlights the UK's large current account deficit and reliance on foreign financing as the key mechanism driving gilt yield spikes.
Wait For A Clear UK Growth Plan Before Buying Pounds
- Become bullish on the pound only after a government presents a clear, coherent growth plan that raises UK growth relative to Europe.
- Kit Juckes says even a 1% faster growth pace could materially strengthen sterling versus current real-term erosion from higher inflation.
Disinflation Baseline Hinges On Energy Shock Trajectory
- Morgan Stanley expects disinflation to resume in H2 and two Fed cuts in H1 2027 under the baseline, but risks are elevated.
- Seth Carpenter warns the energy shock's path and elevated inflation persistence could upset that baseline and Fed timing.