The Compound and Friends Is It Too Good? AI Capex Explodes Higher, Pre-Revenue Stock Boom, Will Falling Mortgage Rates Save Us With Telis Demos (WSJ)
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Sep 23, 2025 Telis Demos, a Heard on the Street columnist for The Wall Street Journal, dives into the implications of falling mortgage rates and the highly publicized U.S. TikTok deal, exploring ownership and political concerns. He also reveals insights on JPMorgan's credit card strategy and discusses the booming private market investments in 401(k)s. The conversation further touches on the frenzy around pre-revenue stocks, the AI capital expenditures arms race, and implications for the broader economy. A juicy mix of finance, tech, and market trends!
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Prepayment Risk Shapes MBS Preferences
- Investors prefer lower-coupon MBS during prepayment-risk regimes because they last longer and reduce reinvestment risk.
- That shift in buyer preference can create an "air pocket" affecting retail mortgage pricing.
Steady Grind, Not A Frenzied Melt‑Up
- The market is grinding steadily higher rather than exploding in a short-lived surge.
- That makes it hard to time a better entry; pullbacks have been muted and recovery swift.
From 'Can It Continue?' To 'Pick My Top Three'
- Josh texted a famous contact celebrating Uber hitting $100 and got asked for three stock picks minutes later.
- The exchange shows how investors oscillate rapidly between relief and eagerness to redeploy gains.
