The Dismal Science 85 - Fear, uncertainty and Doherty
Aug 6, 2021
They unpack the Doherty modelling and the 70%/80% vaccination thresholds shaping the path out of lockdown. They debate risks and uncertainties like waning immunity, tracing capacity and economic trade offs. The conversation moves to cash incentives versus low‑friction vaccination sites. Finally, they examine the RBA outlook, housing boom drivers, and rising buy now pay later use.
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Doherty Is Purposefully Limited And Cautious
- Doherty focuses on transition to phase B within ~six months and explicitly excludes phases C and D due to high uncertainty.
- Key downside risks include new variants, immunity waning, and declining public compliance.
Prefer Short, Strict Lockdowns To Prolonged Moderation
- Treasury quantifies weekly lockdown costs and shows strict short lockdowns beat prolonged moderate ones.
- Minimize cases and keep test–trace–isolate effective to reduce economic damage.
Incentivize Vaccination Once Supply Is Ready
- Use incentives once supply constraints ease, because incentives can shift uptake when vaccines are accessible.
- Consider simple cash payments as a clear, effective tool to raise vaccination rates.
