Reuters Morning Bid Week in Review: A bad time to be a forecaster
Mar 14, 2026
Oil stays stubbornly high despite a massive reserve release and tanker risks. Geopolitical flareups in the Middle East and sanctions shifts keep markets on edge. Core inflation surprises on the upside, pushing rate cut expectations further out. Traders digest supply shocks, transport dangers, and shifting economic timelines in real time.
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Trump's Mixed Messages Amid Ongoing Gulf Attacks
- Peter Devlin recalls President Trump's shifting comments claiming the Iran conflict was over, then saying withdrawal timing is his decision.
- He contrasts those statements with ongoing attacks on tankers and facilities that keep tensions high.
Reserve Release Was Too Small To Offset Strait Disruptions
- The IEA coordinated a historic 400 million barrel release but it barely moved prices because much supply remains stuck in the Gulf.
- Elena Kassas notes the release equals only ~20 days of the oil currently unable to flow, so market impact is limited.
Single Ship Passage Didn't Restore Market Confidence
- One Indian‑flagged tanker made it through the Strait of Hormuz, briefly easing prices, but one passage doesn't signal broader risk acceptance.
- Elena Kassas cautions many carriers will still avoid the route despite that single success.