The HC Commodities Podcast The Rystad House View and Notes From IE Week, with Claudio Galimberti
Feb 25, 2026
Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist at Rystad Energy, gives a concise House View on global energy supply, demand and geopolitical risks. He discusses IE Week sentiment and Iran scenarios, Venezuela’s slow recovery, Russia–Ukraine trade shifts, a 2026 oversupply risk, AI’s unclear effect on energy, electrification in the Global South and China’s EV-driven transition.
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Episode notes
Geopolitics Keeps Oil Priced Above Fair Value
- Geopolitical risk is the main reason oil prices stay elevated despite expected oversupply in 2026.
- Iran, Strait of Hormuz threats and the Russia–Ukraine situation create a sizable risk premium keeping prices around $68–$85/bl.
Iran Scenario Could Trigger Large Short-Term Price Spike
- Iran's production shock scenarios could remove ~1–1.2 mb/d quickly, potentially spiking prices by $15–$20/bl.
- Iran currently produces ~3.3 mb/d and civil unrest could cut output by ~1 mb/d within months.
Venezuela Recovery Will Be Multiyear And Capital Heavy
- Venezuela's production recovery will be slow and capital intensive, even after political change.
- From ~1.1 mb/d today to ~1.4 mb/d by 2027–28 and ~2 mb/d only in the early 2030s, needing ~$180bn cumulative investment.