Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire
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Mar 9, 2026 
Jiang Xueqin, academic and Predictive History commentator, uses historical patterns and game theory to forecast geopolitical shifts. He outlines how the Iran war could trigger U.S. imperial decline, regional realignments with Iran and Israel, cascading instability across Europe and East Asia, and shifts toward deindustrialization, remilitarization, and mercantilist blocs.
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Gulf States Are Fragile Mirages
- Gulf states are structurally vulnerable: imported food, desalination-dependent water, and petro-revenue-backed finance make them fragile under blockade or strikes.
- Jiang warns Dubai could run out of food within a week and desalination failures would collapse GCC societies.
Petrodollar Ties Sustain US Economy
- The petrodollar and Gulf recycling of oil revenues into U.S. investment underpin American financial stability; losing Gulf support threatens U.S. debt sustainability and AI-driven growth.
- Jiang links Gulf capital to U.S. AI/data center investment and warns withdrawal could trigger a depression worse than the 1930s.
Will And Manufacturing Trump Firepower
- Material and moral factors favor Iran: high political will, manufacturing of drones, and willingness to accept casualties contrast with U.S. low domestic support and depleted munitions capacity.
- Jiang cites Iranian drone production (≈500/day) and U.S. cannibalizing munitions from other theaters.