ABC News Daily Is this the start of Pauline Hanson’s 'orange wave'?
Mar 23, 2026
Melissa Clarke, ABC political correspondent and AM presenter, explains One Nation’s surge in South Australia and what it signals for federal politics. She breaks down how polling turned into votes and which seats flipped. She discusses the party’s positioning on the political spectrum and the risks this trend poses to major parties.
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One Nation Converted Polling Into Actual Seats
- One Nation translated rising opinion polling into real votes in South Australia where one in five voters put them first.
- They finished top two in about half of seats and won at least one lower-house seat plus projected two upper-house seats, building an operational presence.
One Nation Eating Into Safe Labor Seats
- One Nation surged in traditional Labor heartlands, turning seats like Elizabeth into head-to-head ALP versus One Nation contests.
- In Elizabeth ALP primary was 41.5% and One Nation reached 32.6%, up from 9.5% federally a year earlier.
One Nation Is A Populist Force With Sharper Operations
- One Nation is a populist right-wing party focused on immigration, national identity and economic self-sufficiency, similar to parties led by Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen.
- A key difference has been building party structures; One Nation recently improved its political machinery, boosting effectiveness.