Gambling With an Edge

Gambling With an Edge - guest William Ziemba

12 snips
Aug 12, 2021
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INSIGHT

Kelly Maximizes Long‑Run Wealth

  • Ed Thorp popularized the Kelly criterion to maximize long-run wealth despite short-term risk.
  • William Ziemba applies Kelly-based sizing across gambling and investment contexts to grow long-term capital.
ANECDOTE

Breeders' Cup Test Of A Pricing System

  • Ziemba and Ed Thorp tested a racetrack pricing system at the 1984 Breeders' Cup and reported it in his book.
  • The system priced place/show bets and used Kelly sizing to stake advantage bets at scale.
INSIGHT

Benter's Edge: Speed And Models

  • Bill Benter built highly successful computerized betting models for Hong Kong racing by exploiting rapid odds updates and large-scale pools.
  • Ziemba documents Benter's methods in the book Efficiency of Betting Markets.
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