The Widening Middle East Conflict and Its Impact on Energy

Mar 3, 2026

Guest

Karen Young

Karen Young, Middle East geopolitics expert; Richard Nephew, Iran and sanctions negotiator; Anne-Sophie Corbeau, LNG and gas markets specialist. They discuss the regional military campaign and leadership crisis in Iran. They cover impacts on oil and LNG flows, Strait of Hormuz transit risks, market reactions, and potential conflict trajectories and Gulf state vulnerabilities.

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INSIGHT

Disruption Is Mostly Transit Fear Not Infrastructure Damage

So far disruptions are transit-related (insurers, transponders off, ships avoiding Hormuz) rather than large-scale infrastructure destruction.
Sternhoff noted confirmed tankers hit and insurers cancelling coverage, but major processing hubs remain mostly intact for now.

INSIGHT

Attacks On Energy Sites Could Produce Long Lasting Shortages

Targeting energy sites is escalating: Qatar LNG shut after strikes and Saudi Ras Tanura reported damage, raising risk of longer-term outages if major hubs like Abqaiq are hit.
Sternhoff warned damage to Abqaiq or Harg Island platforms would produce multi-week to multi-month supply impacts.

INSIGHT

Iran Is Signaling But Escalation Has Crossed Red Lines

Iran's targeting calculus appears initially signaling rather than maximal destruction, but the threshold has been crossed as energy and civilian infrastructure are being hit.
Karen Young and Richard Nephew observed strikes on power, airports, and hotels escalate psychological impact on Gulf populations and governments.

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On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a campaign against Iran targeting military infrastructure and the regime's core leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials died in the attacks, which triggered a leadership crisis and inflamed tensions throughout the Middle East.

In the immediate aftermath, Iran launched extensive barrages of drones and ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, US military bases, and other targets in neighboring Gulf states. Energy prices rose sharply.

This regional shift carries immediate and enduring consequences for global geopolitics and the stability of international energy flows. The outcome of the conflict—and the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime—remains deeply uncertain. Even with these open questions, the trajectory of this escalation will likely redefine the future of Middle Eastern security, global power dynamics, and the world's energy markets.

How is the conflict evolving, and how might it end? What are the impacts on Gulf states and what are some of the possible paths forward? And how is this all impacting oil and gas markets across the globe?

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with four experts from the Center on Global Energy Policy—Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Richard Nephew, Daniel Sternoff, and Karen Young—to discuss the escalating conflict and its impact on energy and geopolitics.

Anne-Sophie is a global research scholar at CGEP, where she focuses on hydrogen and natural gas. She previously worked as a senior analyst at BP and the International Energy Agency.

Richard is a senior research scholar at CGEP and formerly served as the US deputy special envoy for Iran under the Biden administration, where he played a key role in negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal.

Daniel is a senior fellow at CGEP and heads its corporate partnership strategy.

Karen is a senior research scholar at CGEP with expertise in the Middle East focusing on geopolitics, the political economy of Gulf states, and energy policy.

The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA is closely following the escalating conflict in Iran and its implications for US national security, Middle East geopolitics, and global energy markets. See all of our coverage here.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.