Lead-Lag Live Dollar Decline vs Market Concentration: Henry Greene on Emerging Markets Tech & the Next AI Winners
Mar 3, 2026
Henry Greene, investment strategist at KraneShares focused on emerging markets and ETFs. He discusses how a weaker dollar could boost emerging markets tech. He highlights Taiwan and South Korea’s semiconductor strength and China’s AI innovation. He argues for diversification beyond top-heavy U.S. tech and explains how EM tech exposure can capture global AI capex.
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Dollar Weakness Fueled 2025 Emerging Markets Rally
- A weakening U.S. dollar is a significant tailwind for emerging markets equity returns.
- A ~9% drop in the Bloomberg trade-weighted dollar in 2025 made local-currency revenues worth more to U.S. investors and helped EM tech outperform the NASDAQ.
Taiwan And Korea Capture AI CapEx Power
- Taiwan (TSMC) and South Korea (SK Hynix) are primary beneficiaries of global AI CapEx because they manufacture chips for designers.
- These manufacturers trade at lower multiples than U.S. designers like NVIDIA despite capturing manufacturing demand and rising EPS expectations.
China's LLMs Are A Real Competitive Force
- China has built a competitive AI innovation ecosystem, notably in large language models like Alibaba's QN.
- Some global firms prefer QN for customization, signaling China is innovating on par with the U.S. in parts of AI.