Daily Politics from the New Statesman Britain’s imminent decline
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Mar 12, 2026 
John Bew, historian and former foreign policy adviser to multiple prime ministers, offers a concise mini bio. He frames Britain’s moment as a potential “fourth great disruption.” They cover whether muddling through suffices, the politics blocking long-term planning, defence capability as diplomatic currency, alliance signalling, and what kind of political leadership could reset strategy.
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Britain May Face A Fourth Great Disruption
- Britain is at a possible fourth great disruption where long-standing assumptions about state size, alliances and political economy must be rethought.
- John Bew compares past inflection points and argues Thatcher was a reversion not a full structural reimagining, so today's moment may be larger.
Management Isn't A Substitute For A National Plan
- Political management alone won't solve systemic trade-offs; Britain needs a coherent strategic plan setting priorities across welfare, defence and the economy.
- Bew argues issue-by-issue tinkering and constant crisis response lock governments into kicking hard choices down the road.
Continuity In Foreign Policy Still Requires Hard Choices
- Foreign policy continuity has been the default, but recent Iran-related choices show continuity still involves consequential trade-offs and alliance management.
- Bew notes the UK first refused then allowed US bomber use based on evolving legal advice, illustrating fine-grained, politically costly choices.