Shift Key with Robinson Meyer

Trump’s Most Self-Defeating Move on Rare Minerals

Feb 4, 2026
Nathaniel Horadam, former DOE loan office official and now founder of Full Tilt Strategies, explains critical-mineral policy. He breaks minerals into three policy groups and critiques recent stockpile and price-floor plans. He discusses the role of EV demand, lithium volatility, and what a better policy toolbox would look like.
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ADVICE

Design Stockpiles Around Customers

  • Put industrial end users first when designing a stockpile and let them define what to hold.
  • Focus stockpiles on genuine shortage risks, not price stabilization games.
ADVICE

Treat Stockpiles As Insurance

  • Accept that government stockpiles may lose money because they're insurance, not profit centers.
  • Avoid structuring resilience tools with private-equity pressure to break even.
INSIGHT

Tax Credits Are Foundational

  • Broad tax credits like 45X can lift many mineral producers and create investment certainty.
  • Permanence and transferability of credits matter because projects have long timelines.
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