Middle East Focus As Iran Weakens, Can Hamas Survive?
Mar 26, 2026
Jasser Aboumoussa, MEI senior fellow with 20+ years working in Gaza, gives on-the-ground political analysis. He explores Hamas balancing ties with Iran and Qatar. He describes splits between political and military wings and the tug between pro-Iran hardliners and pragmatic leaders. He discusses regional dynamics, risks of Gaza fading from attention, and how weakening Iranian support forces strategic choices.
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Hamas Caught Between Iran And Qatar Messaging
- Hamas faced a tight diplomatic squeeze between Iran and Qatar, forcing a delayed, faceless social-media statement asking Iran to stop Gulf attacks.
- The statement backfired as Gulf audiences mocked Hamas calling Iran “brothers” while labeling Gulf states “neighborhood countries.”
Political Wing In Qatar Versus Gaza Military Faction
- Internal messaging split: Hamas political leadership in Qatar stayed silent while the Gaza-based military wing celebrated attacks and voiced pro-Iran sentiment.
- This divergence exposed fissures between Qatar-hosted pragmatists and Gaza hardliners loyal to Iran.
Axis Of Resistance Losing Military Momentum
- The Axis of Resistance is weakened: Iran under survival pressure, Hezbollah heavily struck, and Hamas militarily degraded in Gaza.
- Hamas refrained from wider attacks partly due to lack of capacity and fear of devastating Israeli retaliation in densely populated Gaza.