In Focus by The Hindu Assam Assembly elections: Is Himanta all set for a second term as CM?
Mar 18, 2026
Angshuman Choudhury, a researcher doing doctoral work on Assam politics at NUS and King’s College London, breaks down the state's election dynamics. He discusses muted anti-incumbency and Himanta’s identity-driven approach. Delimitation’s impact on Muslim representation and shifting cleavages toward Hindu-Muslim politics are explored. He also touches on welfare schemes, alliance failures and the political fallout of Zubeen Garg’s death.
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Why Anti-Incumbency Hasn’t Snowballed In Assam
- Anti-incumbency exists in Assam but the opposition failed to convert it into a political narrative voters acted on.
- Angshuman Choudhury credits Himanta Biswa Sarma's narrative-building and perceived governance effectiveness for blunting voter fatigue after ten years of BJP rule.
Delimitation Cornered Muslim Votes In Fewer Seats
- The 2023 delimitation reduced Muslim-majority seats from about 33 to 23–24, concentrating Muslim votes geographically.
- Choudhury argues this both undermines Bengali Muslim representation and benefits BJP by cornering the Muslim vote into fewer constituencies.
Opposition Fragmentation Undercuts Delimitation Theory
- Opposition fragmentation after delimitation weakens the argument that concentrated Muslim seats are 'in the bag' for Mahajot.
- AIUDF and Raijor Dal running separately and defections show the alliance that helped in 2021 no longer holds.