FICC Focus Macro Matters: US Rates Outlook With Goldman’s Marshall
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Feb 19, 2026 Will Marshall, Head of U.S. Rate Strategy at Goldman Sachs, offers concise market-savvy perspective. He explains why U.S. rate volatility has eased. He discusses drivers of 10-year yield moves and what could push them up or down. He covers Fed policy outlook, balance sheet constraints, swap spread dynamics, and Treasury issuance plans.
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Low-Vol Fundamentals, External Shocks
- Labor and inflation prints have supported a lower-volatility U.S. rates backdrop this year.
- External spillovers and equity rotations explain recent sharper yield swings despite benign fundamentals.
Labor Market Drives Yield Risks
- A meaningful trend in labor-market health would change yield directions more than spot data noise.
- Goldman pegs recession probability at 20% over the next 12 months, down from 30% last year.
Position For Two Normalization Cuts
- Expect two Fed rate cuts in the back half of the year as normalization rather than insurance.
- Watch inflation and labor data to confirm timing rather than assume aggressive early easing.