C-Suite Perspectives Ukraine War: Are We Headed for a Frozen Conflict—or a Bigger War?
Feb 23, 2026
Dr. Lori Esposito-Murray, a global affairs consultant and former CFR senior fellow, outlines Ukraine’s deep historical roots and why competing origin stories matter. She walks through the war’s evolution into attrition, Russia’s infrastructure attacks, sanctions and shifting alliances. She also maps possible futures: frozen conflict, escalation, or a negotiated settlement.
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Maidan Revolution Sparked The 2014 Land Seizures
- The 2013 Maidan Revolution flipped Ukraine from a pro-Russian to a pro-Western government and triggered Russia's rapid seizure of Crimea in 2014.
- Lori Esposito-Murray recounts Yanukovych fleeing in February 2014 and Russian 'little green men' entering Donetsk and Luhansk days later.
Sanctions Hastened A New Geopolitical Divide
- The 2022 invasion and ensuing sanctions accelerated a fracturing of the post–World War II international order.
- Significant measures like removing Russia from SWIFT and 30-nation sanctions pushed Russia toward closer ties with China, Iran, and others.
Russian Territorial Gains Are Slow And Costly
- Since 2022 Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine but has only gained roughly 12% of territory during the war, making its advances extremely slow.
- Lori Esposito-Murray characterizes the gains as creeping at roughly 15–70 meters per day in major offensives.