Marketplace CPI, demystified
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Mar 11, 2026 Justin Ho, Marketplace reporter who breaks down tariffs and their surprising effects. Nicole Servi, Wells Fargo economist who decodes CPI data and Fed signals. They walk through February CPI quirks, energy and natural gas moves, grocery price shifts like eggs and meat, and how tariffs and war timing complicate inflation readings.
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February CPI Is Misleading Because It's Dated
- February CPI looked encouraging with monthly gains muted but year-over-year CPI and core CPI moved sideways.
- Nicole Servi warns the report is dated and disinflationary progress is stalling heading into an energy price shock from the Middle East.
Expect The Fed To Hold Rates Longer
- The Federal Reserve is likely to stay more restrictive and hold rates longer in response to renewed energy-price uncertainty.
- Servi says the Fed learned from the Ukraine shock and will be more sensitive to commodity-driven inflation this time.
U.S. Gas Prices Rose Prewar From Demand Not Just Supply
- U.S. natural gas prices rose ~10.9% year over year even before Iran conflict tightened global supply.
- Nova Saffo notes U.S. demand (colder winter, data centers) pushed prices, but domestic supply and seasonal lows should ease bills soon.