Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Holger Schmieding & Dan Skelly
4 snips
Feb 17, 2026 
Dan Skelly, a Morgan Stanley Wealth Management strategist, on market allocation and the clash between AI spending and software disruption. Holger Schmieding, a transatlantic economist at Berenberg, on tariffs’ delayed inflationary effects and labor market pressures. They discuss bond-equity links, uneven AI impacts across software, and looming inflation data.
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Equities Follow Bonds
- Equity returns tend to follow bond moves, so watch fixed income for equity signals.
- Tom Keene emphasizes the inverse price-yield relationship as a market guide.
Tariffs And Lingering Inflation
- Holger Schmieding warns US tariffs haven't fully shown up in consumer prices yet.
- He expects further upward pressure on inflation and possible wage rebounds from labor shortages.
Raw Materials And Labor Keep Inflation Alive
- Schmieding notes raw materials and labor shortages could keep global inflation elevated.
- He cautions against betting heavily on long-term global disinflation.