Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast [Mar 29 ’26 Business Report]
Mar 29, 2026
Richard Aboulafia, aerospace strategist; Sash Tusa, European defense analyst; Dr. "Rocket" Ron Epstein, Bank of America equities analyst. They discuss soaring munitions burn rates and missile stock replenishment. They cover jet fuel spikes and impacts on commercial aviation. They debate production bottlenecks, solid rocket motor constraints, and new entrants’ promises. They examine regional air-defense deals and emerging platforms like the KF-21 and Ghost Bat.
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Defense Stocks Outperform In Crisis
- Defense stocks outperformed commercial aerospace during the crisis, with Lockheed up ~27% YTD while Boeing fell ~4% last week.
- Elevated VIX (>30), Brent ~$115, WTI ~$103 and 10-year ~4.25% drove investor flight to defense names and hit commercial travel demand.
Strait Control Drives Energy Premiums And Market Pain
- Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and can effectively extort tankers, with India and Pakistan reportedly paying premiums to transit.
- European defense stocks plunged ~8% as investors priced delivery and demand risk from Gulf disruptions.
Two Paths Define Strategic And Industry Futures
- Two strategic outcomes dominate: either a prolonged 'forever war' or a rapid U.S. pullback akin to Suez, each with opposite defense budget implications.
- A forever war boosts primes and sovereign suppliers; a pullback empowers isolationist politics.
